HFIP Experimental Products

HFIP Hurricane Model Products Page


 

HFIP Products Overview


Warning, this is Experimental data only

This website contains experimental analysis and forecast guidance of unknown accuracy and reliability. This guidance is not intended to replace official advisory, forecast, and warning products issued by the National Hurricane Center and your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. Outside of the United States, please also refer to products issued by your national meteorological service. For official forecasts consult the National Hurricane Center.


Participation 2016 and prior years

This website contain experimental analysis and forecast guidance from the following organizations:

Modeling Groups


Analysis Groups


Product Guide

  1. )  Deterministic model products
  2. )  Ensemble model products
  3. )  Track and Intensity products
  4. )  Probability products

1) HFIP Deterministic model products:

Graphics are generated for both the Regional Scale domain (also known as the parent domain) and when running a storm scale model is applicable, the Storm Scale domain (also known as the child domain). Display of the following variables for all deterministic models are available. These graphics are created using the GrADS visualization tool.


The variables listed above are consolidated into six specific images for each scale in the following configuration:

Regional Scale Graphics: (Sample graphics from TC Hector 08E, Aug 15, 2012 0Z, Operational HWRF run)

o Sea Level Pressure (mb), 10m Wind (kts), and 1000-850mb Layer Thickness (x10m)

o 700mb Geopotential Height (x10m), 700mb Wind (kts), and 700-500mb layer averaged Relative Humidity (%)

o Combination of 850mb Relative Vorticity (x10-5 s-1), 500mb Geopotential Height (x10m), and 200mb Wind (kts)

o 850mb Relative Vorticity (x10-5 s-1), Geopotential Height (x10m), and Wind (kts)

o 500mb Relative Vorticity (x10-5 s-1), Geopotential Height (x10m), and Wind (kts)

o 200mb Relative Vorticity (x10-5 s-1), Geopotential Height (x10m), and Wind (kts)

o *NEW* Precip 6-hr Total, Sea Level Pressure (mb), and 1000-850mb Layer Thickness (x10m) (Sample graphics from TC Dalila 04E, Jul 1, 2013 12Z, Operational GFDL run)

Storm Scale Graphics (Sample graphics from TC Hector 08E, Aug 15, 2012 0Z, Operational HWRF run)

o Sea Level Pressure (mb), 10m Wind (kts)

o 850mb Relative Vorticity (x10-5 s-1), 850mb Geopotential Height (x10m), and 1000-850mb Layer Thickness (x10m)

o 700mb Geopotential Height (x10m), 700mb Wind (kts), and 700-500mb layer averaged Relative Humidity (%)

o 200mb Temperature Anomaly (°C), Geopotential Height (x10m), and Wind (kts)

o Top: Total Wind (kts); Bottom: Relative Humidity (%), Temperature Anomaly (°C),Relative Vorticity (x10-5 s-1), and Meridional Wind (kts)

o Top: Total Wind (kts); Bottom: Relative Humidity (%), Temperature Anomaly (°C), Relative Vorticity (x10-5 s-1), and Zonal Wind (kts)

o *NEW* Precip 6-hr Total, Sea Level Pressure (mb), and 1000-850mb Layer Thickness (x10m) (Sample graphics from TC Dalila 04E, Jul 1, 2013 12Z, Operational GFDL run)

Participating HFIP Global Models:

Operational GFS

Experimental FIM9

Experimental GFS EnKF

and, HFIP Regional Models:

Operational GFDL

Operational HWRF

Experimental WRF AHW NCAR

Experimental UWisc NMS

Experimental COAMPS-TC

Experimental GFDL Ens Mean

Model Diagnostics Graphics (Sample graphics from TC Hector 08E, Aug 15, 2012)

There is value in seeing how well the models perform associated with the current model forecast. High-frequency Tropical Cyclone Forecast (HTCF) diagnostics are available for the Operational HWRF, Experimental AHW4 and UWN8 with the plots listed below. These graphics are created using MATLAB for numerical computation and visualization.


o Raw Intensity,  forecast intensity (kts) based on the ATCF and HTCF tracker data

o Max/Min Intensity, forecast intensity (kts): ATCF output and the max/min extremes based on the HTCF tracker

o Track & Intensity, Forecast track and the location of the maximum wind.

o Minimum pressure  (hPa)

o Radius of Maximum Wind  (km), (RMW)

o RMW: Position , the location of the maximum wind relative to the storm center, in storm-motion relative coordinates. Color indicates forecast hour.

o RMW: Cross Track , the cross-track component of the radius of maximum wind

o RMW: Along Track , Along-track component of the radius of maximum wind

Model Diagnostics Text data files (Sample text from TC Hector 08E, Aug 15, 2012. Sample image from TC Cristina 03E, Jun 09, 2014)

Text diagnostic files are available for the Operational GFDL and HWRF models and for some the Experimental models including AHW4.

o Storm & Sounding Diagnostic and image


To Products Guide (above) To Deterministic NWP model products, see http://www.hfip.org/data/?Path=nwp


2) HFIP Ensemble model products:

Graphics created with Python and IDL scripts.

Ensemble Graphics (Sample graphics from TC Hector 08E, Aug 15, 2012)


Regional Scale, only

o Storm force wind probabilities and description


Regional and Storm Scale

o Sea level pressure, Winds

o 10-m Winds

o Precip Water


Storm Scale, only

o Ensemble track ellipse display

Description of ellipse: The colored ellipses indicate the region that 90% of the ensemble member tracks occupy for a given valid time. This can be interpreted as the region the tropical cyclone will be in with 90% confidence based on that particular ensemble forecast.
Tropical cyclone tracks from each individual ensemble member are shown in gray. The mean track position is plotted with the heavy black line. Colors correspond the valid forecast time, in days since initialization, with the colored number indicating the number of days.


Participating HFIP Global Ensemble Models:

Experimental GFS EnKF

Experimental FIM EnKF --For the graphics: model members 1-10 are FIM, model members 11-20 are GFS

New Experimental FIM 30km EnKF --For the graphics, model members 1-10 are FIM, model members 11-20 are GFS


To Products Guide (above) To Ensemble model products, see http://www.hfip.org/data/?Path=ens


3) TCMT Track and Intensity products:

The TCMT graphics are created with NCAR Command Line (NCL)  Graphics. The graphics are in three model groups: Stream 1.5 experimental, Stream 2 experimental, and All Streams, which comprises all experimental and operational model track and intensity forecasts. (Sample graphics from TC Hector 08E, Aug 15, 2012)

Track guidance data is delivered by modeling groups participating in the 2012 HFIP Demonstration System and include three classes of products:

- Stream 1.5 experimental models and the TCMT multi-model ensemble mean (T1MN) computed from the available Stream 1.5 model members

- Stream 2 experimental models and the TCMT multi-model ensemble mean (T2MN) computed from the available Stream 2 model members

- All Streams: Stream 1 operational models, 1.5 and 2 experimental models and the TCMT multi-model ensemble mean (T3MN) computed from the available model members

o Regional Track

o Storm Track

o Intensity

o Ellipse Track ...for additional information see above


To Products Guide (above) To Track and intensity products, see http://www.hfip.org/data_tracker/


4) HFIP Probability products: **New**

CIRA, Mark DeMaria and Andrea Schumacher, co-leads

Operational NHC wind speed probability model with global model ensemble tracks. Plots are not based on one model, several ensemble models go into the solution: 133 tracks used: GFS (20), CMC (20), EMCWF (50), FNMOC (20), and UKMET (23).

o Hybrid dynamical-statistical Windspeed probabilities cumulative comparisons, 2012 06 24 00


GFDL, Tim Marchok, lead
o Ensemble-based probability storm formation, 2012 08 03 00. Tracker software is run on multiple global model ensembles

o Ensemble perturbation forecast storm tracks, 2012 08 03 00. (Not shown on hfip.org at this time.)


Participating Ensemble Models:

NCEP (US National Center for Env Prediction) GFS Ensemble

CMC (Canadaian Meteo Centre) Ensemble

FNMOC (Fleet Numerical Meteo & Ocean Center) Ensemble

ECMWF (European Centre) Ensemble


To Products Guide (above) To Probability products, see http://www.hfip.org/data/?Path=prob



Product Guide URL's

  1. )  http://hfip.org/data/?Path=nwp Deterministic NWP products
  2. )  http://hfip.org/data/?Path=ens  Ensemble model products
  3. )  http://hfip.org/data/?Path=prob Track and Intensity products
  4. )  http://hfip.org/data_tracker/    Probability products
  5. ) Or, just go to   http://hfip.org/products/

Keyboard shortcuts for animating images

There are graphical buttons for controlling the animation of images. The controls are to the RIGHT of each animaiton.



These animation options can also be controlled by using your keyboard.


SPACEBAR = Start/stop animation

RIGHT arrow key → = Advance animation by 1 frame (+6 hrs)

LEFT arrow key ← = Reverse animation by 1 frame (-6 hrs)

DOWN arrow key ↓ = Slow animation speed *

UP arrow key ↑ = Increase animation speed *


<SHIFT>-F (while animating) = Animate forward

<SHIFT>-R (while animating) = Animate in reverse

<SHIFT>-B (while animating) = 'Bounce' animation


To skip an image, press the cooresponding frame number

Slow animation by changing the slider widget interactively, or with the UP and DOWN arrow keys


* (May not work on all browsers, namely FireFox on linux)


Products Webpage Working Group Members 2013 onward

Paula McCaslin, Chair/Lead Engineer – ESRL/GSD

Sheema Lett, Facilitator – NWS/OST

Thiago Quirino – AOML

Laurie Carson – TCMT

Hao Jin – NRL

Paul Kucera – TCMT

Matt Morin – GFDL

Kate Musgrave – CIRA

Phil Pegion – ESRL/PSD

Dave Zelinsky – NHC

Weiguo Wang – NOAA/ EMC

With contributions from Timothy Marchok – GFDL

Products Webpage Working Group Members 2012

Paula McCaslin, Chair/Lead Engineer – ESRL/GSD

Robert Gall, Co-Chair – NWS/OST

Sheema Lett, Facilitator – NWS/OST

Laurie Carson – TCMT

Hao Jin – NRL

Paul Kucera – TCMT

Matt Morin – GFDL

Kate Musgrave – CIRA

Phil Pegion – ESRL/PSD

Thiago Quirino – AOML

Susan Sahm – ESRL/GSD/AMB

Sam Trahan – EMC

Dave Zelinsky – NHC

With contributions from Timothy Marchok – GFDL


Questions or comments

Send email to: HFIP Products Comments

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Updated: June 16th, 2014